The conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?
نویسندگان
چکیده
It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners’ interpretation of the expressions “probability” and “and.” We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of typical responses to conjunction problems. © 2004 Cognitive Science Society, Inc. All rights reserved.
منابع مشابه
On the nature of the conjunction fallacy
In a seminal work, Tversky and Kahneman showed that in some contexts people tend to believe that a conjunction of events (e.g., Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement) is more likely to occur than one of the conjuncts (e.g., Linda is a bank teller). This belief violates the conjunction rule in probability theory. Tversky and Kahneman called this phenomenon the "conjunctio...
متن کاملOn the reality of the conjunction fallacy1
Attributing higher “probability” to a sentence of form p-and-q compared to p is a reasoning fallacy only if (a) the word “probability” carries its modern, technical meaning, and (b) the sentence p is interpreted as a conjunct of the conjunction p-and-q. Legitimate doubts arise about both conditions in classic demonstrations of the conjunction fallacy. We use betting paradigms to reduce these so...
متن کاملOn the reality of the conjunction fallacy.
Attributing higher "probability" to a sentence of form p-and-q, relative to p, is a reasoning fallacy only if (1) the word probability carries its modern, technical meaning and (2) the sentence p is interpreted as a conjunct of the conjunction p-and-q. Legitimate doubts arise about both conditions in classic demonstrations of the conjunction fallacy. We used betting paradigms and unambiguously ...
متن کاملNoise in Reasoning as a Cause of the Conjunction Fallacy
The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge a conjunction A&B as more likely than a constituent A, contrary to the rules of probability theory. We describe a model where this fallacy arises purely as a consequence of noise and random error in the probability estimation process. We describe an experiment testing this proposal by assessing the relationship between fallacy rates and the avera...
متن کاملProbability error in diagnosis: the conjunction fallacy among beginning medical students.
OBJECTIVE Incorrectly concluding that the probability of a joint event (such as a combination of clinical findings) is greater than the probability of any one of these events alone is known as the conjunction fallacy. It is one type of cognitive error in estimation of probability to which physicians are known to be prone. The purpose of this study was to determine whether beginning medical stud...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Cognitive Science
دوره 28 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2004